America & Asia
Launch Starks
17th March - 21st March
The Starks Macro
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Stay informed with the latest global and African news, forex updates, and economic insights.
Hello and welcome to this week's Macro View, where we analyse the latest trends and key shifts influencing global economies.
In the previous week, Fed kept interest rates at 4.5% but lowered its 2025 growth forecast to 1.7%, warning of rising inflation and potential stagflation risks. Meanwhile, China also held rates steady, balancing economic support with yuan stability, though analysts expect a rate cut soon if growth remains sluggish.
Here in Africa, Nigeria’s inflation eased to 23.18% in February, driven by base effects and macroeconomic stability, though core inflation slightly increased. Markets reacted with a mix of rallies and bond purchases, reflecting uncertainty over global economic conditions. Trade tensions, particularly U.S. tariffs, remain a key factor influencing future policy decisions worldwide.
At a Glance
Global Economy
  • Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Rising Economic Uncertainty
  • Bank of England Holds Rates, Signals Caution Amid Inflation Risks
  • Japan’s Inflation Eases, But Core Prices Remain Stubbornly High
African Economy
  • Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 23.18% in February 2025
  • Dangote Refinery Halts Naira-Based Fuel Sales Amid Policy Uncertainty
  • Pipeline Explosion Raises Concerns Over Nigeria’s Oil Infrastructure
  • Angola’s Central Bank Holds Interest Rate But Eases Liquidity Measures
Global Economy
Fed Holds Rates Steady, Signals Rising Economic Uncertainty
What We've Seen: In its March 2025 meeting, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates at 4.25%–4.5%, aligning with expectations. However, it revised its inflation forecast upward to nearly 3% while lowering GDP growth projections from 2.1% to 1.7%. Policymakers expressed growing concerns over economic uncertainty, particularly due to trade policies, with many now seeing an elevated risk of economic decline. The Fed acknowledged this uncertainty in its post-meeting statement, signalling caution in its future policy approach.
What We Believe: While the Fed remains committed to planned rate cuts later in the year, rising inflation and slowing growth could complicate its approach. If economic uncertainty persists—especially due to trade tensions and shifting market conditions—rate cuts may be delayed or adjusted. Investors should brace for potential volatility, as any further inflation spikes or downturn signs could prompt the Fed to reconsider its easing timeline.
Bank of England Holds Rates, Signals Caution Amid Inflation Risks
What We've Seen: The Bank of England (BoE) kept its benchmark interest rate at 4.5% as expected, with an 8–1 vote by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC). Contrary to market predictions of a 7–2 split, only one member pushed for a rate cut, signalling a more cautious stance. Policymakers cited persistent inflation and global trade uncertainties, particularly from U.S. tariff policies, as reasons for maintaining current rates. Despite these concerns, Governor Andrew Bailey reaffirmed that interest rates are still expected to decline gradually over time.
What We Believe: With inflationary pressures lingering and trade uncertainties rising, the BoE is likely to maintain higher borrowing costs longer than anticipated. While a rate cut remains on the horizon, its timing will depend on inflation trends and economic stability. If price pressures ease slower than expected, the BoE may delay cuts, keeping financial conditions tight for businesses and consumers in the near term.
Global Economy Cont'd
Japan’s Inflation Eases, But Core Prices Remain Stubbornly High
What We've Seen: Japan’s inflation rate fell to 3.7% in February 2025, down from 4.0% in January, primarily due to lower energy prices following the reintroduction of subsidies. Food price increases also slowed, along with costs in healthcare and recreation. However, inflation picked up in transport, furniture, and communications, while core inflation remained elevated at 3.0%, slightly above forecasts. Despite January’s rate hike to 0.5%, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) kept rates unchanged in March, citing concerns over global economic uncertainties, particularly the impact of U.S. tariffs.
What We Believe: While inflation is easing, core price pressures suggest that Japan’s economy is not entirely out of the woods. If energy subsidies continue and global trade disruptions worsen, inflation may trend downward toward the BoJ’s 2% target. However, persistent cost pressures in key sectors could delay further monetary policy adjustments, keeping the BoJ cautious about any immediate rate changes.
African Economy
Nigeria’s Inflation Eases to 23.18% in February 2025
What We've Seen: Nigeria’s inflation rate declined to 23.18% in February 2025 from 24.48% in January, reflecting base year effects and relative macroeconomic stability. Food inflation fell to 23.51%, while core inflation saw a slight uptick to 23.01%, indicating mixed price movements across sectors.
What We Believe: While the downward trend suggests some stabilization, inflationary pressures remain due to persistent currency volatility and high import costs. Further easing will depend on sustained policy interventions, improved food supply, and external economic conditions.
African Economy Cont'd
Dangote Refinery Halts Naira-Based Fuel Sales Amid Policy Uncertainty
What We've Seen: Dangote Refinery has suspended the sale of petroleum products in naira due to the government's failure to renew the Naira-for-crude agreement with NNPCL. With crude oil allocations prioritized for foreign creditors, supply challenges have emerged, exacerbating market concerns.
What We Believe: The refinery's decision, coupled with rising FX pressures and inflation concerns, may worsen fuel availability and pricing in the short term. A delayed resolution could further strain Nigeria’s energy sector.
Pipeline Explosion Raises Concerns Over Nigeria’s Oil Infrastructure
What We've Seen: A pipeline explosion occurred on March 19, 2025, at a manifold in the Omwawriwa area of ONELGA, Rivers State—the second such incident in the state within two days. Just earlier, an explosion hit the Trans-Niger Pipeline (TNP) in Gokana LGA, disrupting crude transport to the Bonny export terminal.
What We Believe: Although operations on the TNP have resumed, uncertainties remain about the full impact on Nigeria’s crude oil output and revenues. These repeated incidents underscore ongoing threats to oil infrastructure, posing risks to government earnings, investor confidence, and overall energy security.
African Economy Cont'd
Angola’s Central Bank Holds Interest Rate But Eases Liquidity Measures
What We've Seen: The National Bank of Angola kept its benchmark interest rate steady at 19.5% in March 2025, marking ten consecutive months at this level. However, to ease financial conditions, it cut the liquidity absorption rate by 100bps to 17.5% and lowered the reserve requirement ratio for banks to 20%.
What We Believe: These measures aim to boost liquidity and stimulate economic growth, but high borrowing costs may still constrain credit expansion. Further policy adjustments will likely depend on inflation trends and overall economic conditions.
Forex Market Update - Global
EURUSD
The euro showed strength against the U.S. dollar, ending the week with significant gains near 1.0387. This upward movement was attributed to market anticipation of the Federal Reserve maintaining steady interest rates and ongoing economic uncertainties. ​
GBPUSD
The British pound maintained a relatively stable position against the U.S. dollar, with market positioning close to neutral. Investors exhibited balanced sentiment, reflecting cautious optimism amid global economic developments.
Forex Market Update - Global Cont'd
GBPUSD
The British pound maintained a relatively stable position against the U.S. dollar, with market positioning close to neutral. Investors exhibited balanced sentiment, reflecting cautious optimism amid global economic developments.
USDCAD
The U.S. dollar experienced a modest rally against the Canadian dollar during the week. However, gains were limited as the pair faced resistance, with the exchange rate hovering around the 1.42 level. Market participants remained attentive to trade dynamics and central bank communications.
Africa
USDNGN
The Nigerian Naira exhibited mixed performance against the US Dollar across different markets. In the Nigerian Autonomous Foreign Exchange Market (NAFEM), the Naira appreciated by approximately 0.65%, strengthening from ₦1,538/$ to ₦1,528/$ by March 24, 2025. Conversely, in the parallel market, the Naira depreciated by about 0.63%, weakening from ₦1,575/$ to ₦1,585/$ over the same period. These movements reflect the complex dynamics influencing Nigeria's foreign exchange landscape.​
Commodities
Oil
Oil prices remained stable as traders weighed mixed signals. WTI crude rose 0.3%, closing above $68 per barrel for a second consecutive weekly gain. U.S. sanctions on a Chinese refinery boosted Middle Eastern oil prices due to potential supply concerns, but fears of slowing global growth and speculation about OPEC+ supply increases limited further gains.
Gold
Gold prices reached new highs, surpassing $3,000 per ounce amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties. Having hit a record high of $3,004.86 on March 14, by March 20, gold prices eased slightly due to profit-taking but maintained a bullish outlook, with spot gold down 0.3% at $3,038.79 an ounce after hitting a record high of $3,057.21 earlier in the session. The surge in gold prices is attributed to factors including U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies, which have heightened economic concerns, and robust central bank purchases.